MotoGP 2024 Riders – Who needs a really good season?

The 2024 season of MotoGP is on and fans are eagerly awaiting the races, who gonna make it and who gonna break it. Which fans will celebrate and which fans will share a tear.

But its a bigger thing going on then the pure racing this season – Who gonna drive what in 2025! Yes, this so called silly season is going to be bigger and more intense then … ever before(?)

With most of the contracts outgoing at the end of the year it could be some dramatic changes in the drivers market throughout the season. And every journalist that covers MotoGP do hope it will be a season with a ton of rumours, the crazier the better!

Its 22 rides up for grab for 2025 (could be 24 but nothing right now points to that), 4 + 1 riders have contract beyond 2025, Bagnaia, Zarco, Marini, Binder and then Fermin Aldeguer from Moto2, the latter makes it 18 riders now left on the roster fighting for only 17 rides for 2025.

Here’s our maybe/perhaps predictions with a “Kick out list for 2024”:

#1 – Francesco ”Pecco” Bagnaia, Ducati Lenovo Team (Ducati Factory Team)

Reigning double world champion. Signed a new contract directly with Ducati for 2025-26 a couple weeks before the season started.

Kick out factor: 0 of 5 None, he stays!

#5 – Johann Zarco, LCR Honda (Honda Satellite Team)

Got a 2 year contract for 2024-25 with Honda to race for LCR Honda. Got contract so he should probably stay, he’s there to help Honda digging themself out of that big hole they been in for the last couple years (Yes, same as Marini).

Kick out factor: 1 of 5

#10 – Luca Marini, Repsol Honda Team (Honda Factory Team)

Got a 2 year contract for 2024-25 with Honda to race for Hondas factory team. Got contrct so he should probably stay, he’s there to help Honda digging themself out of that big hole they been in for the last couple years (Yes, same as Zarco).

Kick out factor: 1 of 5

#12 – Maverick Vinales, Aprilia Racing (Aprilia Factory Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, Maverick really needs to shine if he want to keep the spot at Aprilia factory team. It could be several other riders aiming for that ride! Maverick is one of three rides that we feel going to have the biggest problem to secure a ride in MotoGP next season, Franco and Jack beeing the other two.

Kick out factor: 4,5 of 5

#20 – Fabio Quartararo, Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP (Yamaha Factory Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, the question is if he wants to stay, Yamaha needs to get their bike competitive or at least nearly competitive if they want the 2021 world champion to stay with them. One thing that plays against Fabio, he for sure wants some time to see if Yamaha can take the steps they need, but it aint that many factory rides available, he could get stuck with Yamaha even if he wants to move.

Kick out factor: Up to Fabio him self.

#21 – Franco Morbidelli, Prima Pramac Racing (Ducati Satellite Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, after some difficult years with Yamaha Franco now needs to show what he can do. Didn’t start great for him with an injury in pre-season testing which did keep him from getting used to the new bike, He doesn’t have much time either, with one spot occupied both at the factory team and at Pramac he has a steep hill he needs to climb very fast.

Kick out factor: 4,5 of 5

#23 – Enea Bastianini, Ducati Lenovo Team (Ducati Factory Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, did fight with Jorge Martin for the factory ride during the 2022 season and did end up winning that fight and got him self a two year contract riding arguably the best bike on the grid. 2023 didn’t treat Enea good at all though, injured already in the first race messed up he’s season, now he have to show that he’s worthy a Ducati factory bike.

Enea (The Beast) is a class racer, that said, he’s opponents for that factory spot is ridiculously tough: Jorge Martin, Marc Marquez, Marco Bezzecchi and dont forget that Fabio Quartararo may be looking for an other ride also, scary stuff, and then we’re only namned the obvious once.

Kick out factor: Oh we’re not even gonna try to rate this one, way too many factors invold, you pick your self 😉

#25 – Raul Fernandez, Trackhouse Racing (Aprilia Satellite Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, Trackhouse Racing is new to MotoGP as they took over from RNF Racing team for this season. Raul did race for RNF last year so he’s used to the Aprilia machinery, and the former Moto2 runner up needs to start showing some results.

The facts its a new team and a satellite team will proably give him some leeway. But there may be several threats for him, if Trackhouse gets their eye’s on some top Moto2 racer, or he’s namesake Augusto or Diggia. Raul have an uncertain future ahead.

Kick out factor: 2,5 of 5

#30 – Takaaki ”Taka” Nakagami, LCR Honda Idemitsu (Honda Satellite Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, this ride is marked for an Japanese and Taka will most likely stay with LCR. Probably the only thing that could make him lose the ride is if Ai Ogura wins the Moto2 crown, that could actually happen though so the ride aint 100%

Btw, you could argue that Take should be awarded a 10-year contract just because he’s the only Honda rider that haven’t occupied a hospital bed half the season the last couple years 😀

Kick out factor: 1 of 5

#31 – Pedro Acosta, Red Bull Tech3 GASGAS (KTM Satellite Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, the only newbie in the class this year and KTM will do absoluty everything they can to keep the two time world champion (Moto3 and Moto2), and so far he has been very happy within the KTM fold.

If you don’t know who Pedro Acosta is then maybe some of the epithet he has to his name can clarify things: ”The Next One” ”Once in a generation” ”Future MotoGP World champion” …

Rumors says that he has a clause in his contract that says he’s up for a factory ride for KTM in 2025, yep, sounds absolutly possible.

Kick out factor: 0,1 of 5 or 5 of 5 if you count that he will go to the factory team next year.

#33 – Brad Binder, Red Bull KTM Factory Racing (KTM Factory Team)

Got a contract to the end of 2026 directly with KTM. Cant see anything that will change that, he been the best KTM rider the last couple of years and are highly appreciated within KTM.

Kick out factor: 0 of 5 He stays!

#36 – Joan Mir, Repsol Honda Team (Honda Factory Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, Mir had a truly awful season in 2023, the few races he was able to race in often ended up with even more injuries and more missed races.

After Marc Marquez left for Ducati its now Mir thats number 1 Honda rider. Plenty of question marks that needs to be solved, can they get the Honda to work and be competitive, can Joan be competitive, if no on both (or even one), will he stay, will he stop racing all together (he had those thoughts during 2023).

Kick out factor: ???? Yep, its just too many question marks, that said, it’s absoluty a kick out factor in play here.

#37 – Augusto Fernandez, Red Bull Tech3 GASGAS (KTM Satellite Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, it seems like Augusto dont really have anything to worry about if he wants to stay at KTM, never easy to read what the teams and the factory bosses are thinking, in this case we gonna take a shot though.

KTM got their hands full with Binder and Acosta, letting Augusto keep on racing with them make sense. That said, what do Augusto wants then, a factory ride at KTM seems unlikely in the coming years, so maybe Augusto gonna aim for an other brand where a factory contrct could be eiser to get, like through a satellite ride at Honda, Aprilia or Yamaha (if they get a satellite team).

Kick out factor: 2 of 5

#41 – Aleix Espargaro, Aprilia Racing (Aprilia Factory Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, Aleix have helped Aprilia to be where they are now and he been the best riders among the Aprilia crew with several wins. For a year or so ago he mumbled something about that 2024 would be his last year, he changed his mind during the last season though.

Kick out factor: 1 of 5 He stays if he wants.

#42 – Alex Rins, Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP (Yamaha Factory Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, new from Honda this year, formaly team mate with Mir att Suzuki’s factory team (that surprisingly folded after 2022 season). Fast and knowledgeable, for sure Yamaha is hoping he will help them out and get the bike back in shape.

Kick out factor: 1 of 5

#43 – Jack Miller, Red Bull KTM Factory Racing (KTM Factory Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, Miller is stuck between a rock and a hard place, he’s #2 at the factory team and KTM got the hottest property since Marc Marquez targeting his ride, dear Jack will lose out to Acosta.

Kick out factor: 4,5 of 5 Could very well end up at KTM’s satellite team though, or Superbike …

#49 – Fabio di Giannantonio, Pertamina Enduro VR46 (Ducati Satellite Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, Diggia lost his ride at Gresini to Marc Marquez and it actually looked like he wouldn’t get a ride for 2024, a stunning end of the season saved him a future in MotoGP. Now everybody wonders if he can replicate his speed in a new team, still (kind of) the same machinery should help out.

It’s an other factor that could impact things, is VR46 going to race with Ducati bikes or Yamaha bikes for 2025 and beyond? If he shows same speed during 2024 like at the end of 2023, then it wouldn’t be any surprise if Pramac gonna hunt for him.

Kick out factor: 3 of 5

#72 – Marco ”Bez” Bezzecchi, Pertamina Enduro VR46 (Ducati Satellite Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, this is one more of those rides that nearly impossible to predict where they gonna ride in 2025. He could have been racing for Pramac Ducati this season but opted for staying with VR46 Ducati, the Pramac contract was only for one season, maybe better to stay where he was used to everything – fully aware that factory contracts for Ducati and others would be up for grabs in 2025.

He have to beat some serious competition though, Enea Bastianini, Jorge Martin and Marc Marquez (maybe even Fabio Quartararo could aim for that ride). So its very hard to predict where Bez gonna race in 2025, for sure he wants a factory ride, so if not Ducati he may end up at Aprilia.

Kick out factor: 3 of 5

#73 – Alex Marquez, Gresini Racing MotoGP (Ducati Satellite Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, the younger of the Marquez brothers also have to renew his contract beyond 2024, his brother Marc is in the same team and he will most likely be aiming for a factory ride (if he keeps on racing). Will Gresini want two new riders for 2025? Probably not and Alex is a decent MotoGP rider, that opens up for Alex to get an easy renewal.

Kick out factor: 1 of 5

#88 – Miguel Oliveira, Trackhouse Racing (Aprilia Satellite Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, as several other rides Oliveira had an injury filled 2023, has he fully recovered yet is a question, and how will the new-ish team work, and will Oliveira come back to the form he showed a couple years ago.

He actually need to show some results during 2024 or else he could lose this ride to some younger rider, on the other hand, with a really good season he could be up for a factory contract with Aprillia.

Kick out factor: 2,5 of 5

#89 – Jorge Martin, Prima Pramac Racing (Ducati Satellite Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, Jorge got two things he aims for during 2024, the MotoGP title and a factory contrct for 2025, if not Ducati then somewhere else, would be a surprise if he didn’t get at least one of those goals, maybe even both 😊

Kick out factor: 5 of 5

#93 – Marc Marquez, Gresini Racing MotoGP (Ducati Satellite Team)

Contract outgoing 2024, when the 8 time world champion last year announced his move it did send a shock through the racing world – a move from Honda to Ducati, and it’s a satellite Ducati.

Now the question are numerous and idea’s and thoughts on whats gonna happen even more numerous. We think its kinda easy though, couple things could happen:

1) He dont get the results he wants and stops racing

2) He crashes badly or half badly and decides to quit (injury filled last couple of seasons so this is not out of question)

3) He wins one more title and moves up the Ducati factory team

4) He fights about the title but losses out at the end – here’s the only conundrum as we see it, if he loses out to Pecco, fine, Marc could end up besides Pecco next year – but whats gonna happen if Bastianini or Martin wins the title, its not like Ducati could not give the new world champion a factory contrct … yee, this is a tricky one, what do Marc do then, stop racing, Pramac, Aprillia, back to Honda (OMG, that would be something).

Kick out factor: 5 of 5

 

One last thing in this very long, we could call it rant, its actually a very limited good factory rides up for grabs, KTM is full, Pecco got one spot at Ducati so only one left here, then one or two at Aprillia – who of the big guys makes the first move?